2018 NBA Season Preview Series: Houston Rockets

Man, I was rooting for MIN here I can’t lie. After getting worked in last year’s playoffs to the tune of 4-1 against the Rockets, I was hoping they could have this small victory, but the stoolies have spoken. For our third team so far as part of this season preview series, we’ll be talking about one of the more interesting teams in the entire league based on the summer they’ve had. If you’d like to catch the previous previews, you can read about TOR here and UTA here. The Rockets have big boy expectations as we head into the 2018-19 season, but before we can talk about where they may be going, we should quickly revisit where they’re coming from

2017-18 Season Highlights

The Houston Rockets are fascinating in my opinion. On one hand, this is a team that won 65 games, was clearly the best team during the entire regular season, and was the closest we’ve seen in years to actually knocking off the Warriors. Their season last year was one of the most historic offensive seasons in NBA history, and for the most part they are returning all of their main pieces. As of now, this is what their roster looks like

At $135,371,261 the Rockets have the 4th most expensive roster in the league, but I think it’s safe to say given how good they are that this is money well spent. More certainly knows what he’s doing, and really outside of Ryan Anderson’s ridiculous contract there really isn’t a bad number on this entire roster. Normal logic would suggest that they are again going to be considered among the best three teams in the league right? Well it’s not so simple when you start looking closer. We’ll get to the roster changes in a second, but my thought when it comes to the Rockets is mostly that last year was so outrageous offensively, that the Rockets can still be really fucking good and not quite what we saw over the course of 82 games in 2017. For example, they were the fastest team in NBA history to reach 1,000 3PM in a season. They made a ridiculous 1,256 threes, 200 more than the next closest team (BKN). They took 3,470 attempts, which is more than 500 more than BKN. I think it’s unfair to expect them to maintain this never before seen production from deep, so while they may still lead the league in this category based on how they play, some sort of regression has to be expected right? Now it’s true, the Rockets did lose 170 3PM from Trevor Ariza who made the 3rd most threes on the team, but let’s not forget that CP3 played only 58 games and made 144, and Melo did make 169 while in OKC, so maybe things won’t look that much different. We know their approach isn’t going to change as long as they still have Harden/Paul running things with D’Antoni calling the shots, but as we saw in Game 7, this is a strategy that can sometimes bone you at the worst possible moment.

But for anyone who watched this team play, you know what an exciting team it can be. Remember that time they scored 90 points in 24 minutes of basketball? What even was that!

When you think of offensive powerhouses in today’s NBA, you usually land on the Rockets and the Warriors. What intrigues me is how different these teams go about their offensive production. For example, the Warriors are the best passing team on the planet, led the league and assists and use a variety of different sets in order to get their shooters open. We see Curry and Klay and Durant come off screen after screen with possessions where every single player touches the ball. The Rockets couldn’t be any more different if they tried. Houston ranked 26th in assists per night which is crazy when you consider what talented passers CP3 and Harden are, but that’s because their offensive approach is built around isolation basketball as opposed to ball movement. They were DEAD LAST in passes per game at 253.8, it’s just not what they do. But unlike other teams we see that try this isolation approach and struggle, the Rockets do it because they are fucking awesome at it. They have the second best FG% in the league at 51.1% on possessions that include 7+ dribbles, and lead the league in 3p% at 40.8% in those same situations. That’s why you see so many possessions where Harden will take the whole shot clock and dribble only to nail a step back three. Not only is it virtually unguardable, but they do it at a league best clip.

In terms of isolation offense the Rockets led the league with 1.12 points per possession while scoring 47.7% of their isolation possessions, which you guessed it, also led the league. What makes them dangerous isn’t just their ability to score out of this set, but also their ability to get to the line. At 16.2% FT frequency out of isolation (best in league), they dare you to try and pick your poison as to how to stop it. Even if you think you’re playing good defense against it, Harden is going to find his way to the line. This is where the addition of Melo will be interesting to see, as he’s clearly an isolation player. Certainly more than someone like Trevor Ariza was, and now he plays in a system that is not only allergic to passing, but actually prefers their players play this way.

If it’s not isolation, the Rockets are running you through pick and rolls until your eyes bleed. With guard like Harden/CP3, they always have the advantage on any switch, and you know what I don’t even hate when they run this set through Eric Gordon either. At 1.12 points per P&R possession and 54.6% shooting, it’s another pick your poison situation for defenders. Oh you want to help on the ball handler? Ok fine they’ll just lob it to Capela. Oh you want to guard against the lob well guess what Harden just scored easily at the rim. It’s impossible to guard really. What makes it tricky is they also use the the high pick and roll as a way to free up their outside shooters at the top of the key. If you love offense this is porn

Now as good offensively as the Rockets are, to me what made them elite was their commitment to defense. That may sound funny considering James Harden is their best player, but it’s the truth. The Rockets were one of the best defensive teams all season with a 103.8 Drtg (6th in NBA) with opponents shooting 46/35% splits. A top 10 team in terms of opponents turnovers, and 5th in steals the Rockets being able to play reliable defense is a wrinkle I don’t think many expect. That’s why it was so important that they brought back Capela, because the difference he makes at the rim is what allows them to hide certain possessions where Harden may not be totally trying. But to be fair to him, he has improved on that end of the floor as well over the years.

The question will be how will the SF swap impact the defense. We know offensively things should look the same, but Trevor Ariza/Luc Mbah a Moute were legit wing defenders, and nothing we’ve seen from Melo over the last few years suggest that he has any interest whatsoever at defending. That’s really where I’m interested to see how the Rockets adjust. Now there’s going to be more pressure on guys like PJ Tucker to not only be healthy, but be that primary wing defender on a nightly basis. This is why people are expecting the HOU win total to regress a little bit, to the mid to high 50s, especially given the loaded teams that play in the West. The pressure last year was to prove that CP3/Harden could coexist, and now that we not only know they can, but they showed to be pretty good, it’s clearly a Finals or bust type deal this upcoming season. I will say, outside of Eric Gordon and Gerald Green, the Rockets bench is a little scary and not exactly in a good way. I think if we were to guess who may break out from that second unit, I’m going to throw the name of James Ennis out there. If you aren’t too familiar with him, spend some time to Google the highlights. The Rocket’s bench last year was 25th in the league in points per game at just 30.5 points, so if any main guy sustains any sort of legit injury, this team does not have the depth to stay afloat. Sure they can slide in Eric Gordon here and there, but this isn’t exactly the deepest team in the league by any stretch.

Many will say we already know how the Rockets season will end, with a WCF loss to the Warriors and maybe that’s true. But it also took something we may NEVER see again combined with a CP3 injury just for GS to get past them. Unless Melo completely destroys this team from the inside, I’m not ready to just assume this team  can’t or won’t make the Finals. But make no mistake, given the fact that their title window is NOW, anything other than a Finals appearance is going to be a disappointment. Get your popcorn ready folks, this team is going to be fascinating to watch.

Official Greenie Prediction: 57 wins